Why Pakistan betrayed Saudi Arabia AND Iran??

Executive Summary (TL;DR)

For 50 years the deal was simple: Saudi money for Pakistani protection. Saudi Arabia financed Pakistan's nuclear program (Project 706), bankrolled its bailouts and formalized the alliance in a September 2025 mutual defense pact - but when Iran struck Saudi Arabia daily from March 1, 2026, Pakistan's response was a phone call. The episode's explanation: Pakistan is boxed in by India, Afghanistan and Baloch separatists, and its 40 million Shia citizens revered the killed Khamenei, so bombing Iran risked civil war at home. Meanwhile Pakistan allegedly played both sides - US drones launching from its bases against Iran while it took Saudi billions - and the A.Q. Khan network sold nuclear secrets to Iran, North Korea and Libya. The punchline: with 170 warheads and collapse risk, Pakistan is a nuclear state the world cannot afford to let fail, which is why it collects IMF loans instead of sanctions. FULL COVERAGE: captions appear complete. Sponsor: Outskill.

Key Takeaways

The pact Pakistan did not honor

On September 17, 2025, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defense agreement treating aggression against one as aggression against both; a day later Pakistan's Defense Minister confirmed on live TV that its nuclear capability could extend to Riyadh. When Iran struck Saudi Arabia daily from March 1, 2026, Pakistan limited itself to a foreign-minister phone call.

Saudi wealth, Saudi vulnerability

In 1974 Saudi Arabia pumped 9.5 million barrels a day and imported so much that 220 ships queued 30 miles off Jeddah - but money bought weapons, not the men or competence to use them.

1979: the year that forged the alliance

Khomeini declared the Saudi royals fake believers unfit to guard Mecca; militants seized the Grand Mosque for two weeks (255 killed); Soviet tanks entered Afghanistan, leaving Saudi oil surrounded by Soviet allies - and Pakistan's army, ISI and hunger for cash filled the gap.

Project 706: deterrence as a service

Saudi Arabia financed Pakistan's nuclear program in exchange for an unspoken nuclear umbrella - and Pakistani troops did the dirty work at the Mecca siege, trained the Mujahideen (1979-89) and deployed 11,000-13,000 soldiers when Kuwait was invaded in 1990.

The alleged double game

Reports cited in the episode say Pakistan let US drones launch from its bases against Iran and shared intelligence on Iranian nuclear sites - while the A.Q. Khan network admitted selling nuclear secrets to Iran, North Korea and Libya.

Why Pakistan stayed out

The episode's theory: conflicts with India, Afghanistan and Baloch separatists tie down its forces, and its 40 million Shia citizens - the world's second-largest Shia community - saw Khamenei as a spiritual leader, so attacking Iran risked civil war.

Betrayal as a business model

With 170 warheads - the fifth-largest arsenal, ahead of the UK and France - a collapsed Pakistan is, in the episode's phrase, 'a nuclear weapon with no security guard', so the IMF writes checks and the world pretends not to notice.

The Conversation Breakdown

The phone call instead of an army

⏱ Untimed topic

Iranian missiles on Saudi Arabia, the 2025 defense pact's clear obligation, and Pakistan's non-response.

1974: too much money, too many threats

⏱ Untimed topic

The 9.5-million-barrel bonanza, the 220-ship queue at Jeddah, and why cash could not buy safety.

1979: revolution, siege and Soviets

⏱ Untimed topic

Khomeini's call against the royals, the two-week Grand Mosque siege, and the Soviet encirclement of Saudi oil.

The bargain: money for muscle

⏱ Untimed topic

Project 706, Pakistani troops at Mecca and Kuwait, and 50 years of brotherhood formalized in the 2025 pact.

Playing both sides

⏱ Untimed topic

Reported US drone launches from Pakistani bases and the A.Q. Khan network's sales to Iran, North Korea and Libya.

Core Frameworks & Ideas

Deterrence as a Service

A state with a credible arsenal but no cash can rent out its nuclear umbrella - Project 706 as the template - but the renter owns a promise, not the warheads, and promises get repriced when the war starts.

The Legitimacy Stack

The Saudi monarchy's authority rests on protecting the holy mosques, so threats to Mecca and Medina (the 1979 siege, Khomeini's call) hit the regime's foundation, not just its borders - which is why it outsources their defense.

Too Nuclear to Fail

Once an unstable state holds a large arsenal, the world's fear of loose warheads outweighs its sins: sanctions turn into IMF loans and aid, converting bad behavior into recurring revenue.

Actionable Next Steps

✓Read alliances by their stress test, not their signing ceremony - check what each side actually did the last time the obligation was triggered.
✓When a country sells security (troops, bases, deterrence), ask what domestic constraints - borders, vote banks, sectarian demographics - cap its ability to deliver.
✓Follow the money in long alliances: who funds whose weapons, central-bank deposits and bailouts reveals the real dependency.
✓Treat proliferation networks (like A.Q. Khan's) as systemic risk: secrets sold to one buyer rarely stop at one.

Notable Quotes

“That is how Pakistan turned betrayal into a business model.”
— Think School, narrator

“Pakistan essentially sold nuclear deterrence as a service to Saudi Arabia.”
— Think School, narrator

“Because a collapsed Pakistan is a nuclear weapon with no security guard.”
— Think School, narrator

The One Thing to Remember

Deterrence can be sold as a service, but the seller keeps the option to not deliver: Pakistan rented its nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia for 50 years, and when the call came in 2026, the cost of answering - enemies on three borders and 40 million Shia citizens at home - exceeded the price of betrayal.

Executive Summary (TL;DR)

Key Takeaways

The pact Pakistan did not honor

Saudi wealth, Saudi vulnerability

1979: the year that forged the alliance

Project 706: deterrence as a service

The alleged double game

Why Pakistan stayed out

Betrayal as a business model

The Conversation Breakdown

The phone call instead of an army

1974: too much money, too many threats

1979: revolution, siege and Soviets

The bargain: money for muscle

Playing both sides

Core Frameworks & Ideas

Deterrence as a Service

The Legitimacy Stack

Too Nuclear to Fail

Actionable Next Steps

Notable Quotes

The One Thing to Remember

Why Pakistan could not answer

Too nuclear to fail